FRSH ORIGINAL DATA WORK / CANADA
Put the numbers
in context.
Public source statistics. Original comparisons. Downloadable rows. We make the calculation visible so you can use it and check it.
01 / THE CANOLA BALANCE SHEET
Follow the tonnes.
Dated forecast and estimates · 30 days since release. These are dated outlooks, not live grain bids.
Supply reconciliation: 7.700 exports + 14.401 domestic use + 1.979 stocks = 24.080 Mt. Stocks-to-use: 1,979 ÷ (7,700 + 14,401) ×100 = 8.95%. Original FRSH calculation; denominator is exports plus total domestic use.
| Crop year | Production | Supply | Domestic use | Exports | Stocks | Stocks/use* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024–25 | 19,239 | 22,595 | 11,619 | 9,379 | 1,597 | 7.61% |
| 2025–26 | 22,227 | 23,934 | 13,078 | 8,956 | 1,900 | 8.62% |
| 2026–27 | 22,051 | 24,080 | 14,401 | 7,700 | 1,979 | 8.95% |
*FRSH calculation. CSV includes seeded area in thousand hectares, food & industrial use in thousand tonnes and a crop-year average price in CAD/tonne. The price is a dated outlook specification, not an executable bid. Seed export figures exclude oilseed products. Read the source notes before combining series.
Source: AAFC · September field-crop outlook ↗02 / THE FORECAST REVISION BRIDGE
What changed between releases?
2026–27 only · August20 → September25 · FRSH subtraction and percentage calculations from two dated AAFC outlooks.
| Measure | August20 | September25 | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 21,600 | 22,051 | +451 | +2.1% |
| Supply | 23,455 | 24,080 | +625 | +2.7% |
| Food & industrial use | 13,700 | 13,900 | +200 | +1.5% |
| Total domestic use | 13,951 | 14,401 | +450 | +3.2% |
| Exports | 8,000 | 7,700 | -300 | -3.8% |
| Closing stocks | 1,504 | 1,979 | +475 | +31.6% |
| Average price · CAD/t | 720 | 775 | +55 | +7.6% |
Revision reconciliation: +450 domestic use −300 exports +475 stocks = +625 thousand tonnes of supply. Do not confuse a forecast revision with a change in an observed live price.
Read the original revision analysis03 / THE REGIONAL HARVEST VIEW
One province.
Different harvest positions.
Manitoba canola harvest completion to October 20, 2026 · 5 days before our source check. Provincial estimate: 92%.
Original FRSH comparison: highest99% − lowest85% =14 percentage points. The provincial estimate is the source’s figure; it is not a simple average of regional percentages. Completion does not measure yield or grain quality.
Open the Manitoba report · PDF ↗RELEASE WATCH
What we’re
watching next.
Official schedule checked October 25, 2026. Expected releases remain separate from published data.
- Major grain deliveries · September ↗Scheduled; subject to change
- Oilseed crushing · September ↗Scheduled; subject to change
- International merchandise trade · September ↗Scheduled; subject to change