One provincial number, several regional positions
Manitoba’s October 20 report records canola harvest completion at 92% provincially. The regional figures are 85% in Southwest, 90% in Northwest, 99% in Central, 99% in Eastern and 95% in Interlake. Our chart preserves those regional observations alongside the provincial figure.
Subtract the lowest regional completion from the highest and the spread is 14 percentage points. That is a straightforward FRSH calculation from the report, rather than a new survey. It describes the gap in reported completion; it does not measure yield, quality or the area of individual fields.
A provincial estimate is not a simple mean
Readers should use the published provincial figure rather than average five regional percentages and call the result provincial completion. Regions do not necessarily contain equal crop areas, and the table does not supply the weights needed to reconstruct that aggregate.
That distinction is useful well beyond this report. A national progress number should not be invented by averaging provincial percentages either. Comparable geography, crop area weights, observation dates and methods are prerequisites for a defensible combined estimate.
Completion is only one part of harvest
A completion percentage answers how far the reported harvest has progressed. It does not settle the quality of grain in storage, establish safe storage conditions or specify the terms on which a lot will be accepted. Those are separate operational questions requiring their own evidence.
For a grower, the next record may be a lot-specific sample or storage observation. For a buyer, it may be a contract-specific quality specification. For a publisher, the useful responsibility is to preserve the scope of each number and make the next question clear.
Read the report’s date literally
These observations are to October 20 and were checked by our desk October 25. They are five-day-old reporting, not live conditions. Weather, field access and harvest progress can change between reports. Our chart identifies the original observation date rather than relabelling it with the page’s publication date.
We will extend the crop desk when another verified report changes the evidence. Until then, the existing observation stays dated. Readers can open the original provincial PDF and inspect the table behind the chart.